by Howard Simons, NQLX's Special Academic Advisor.
Financial markets exist in large part as risk transference and liquidity
provision mechanisms, so they should be designed to accommodate the inevitable
wild markets and volatility surges. How did Nasdaq Liffe Markets account
for this in its process of selecting which stocks to underlay its single
stock futures (SSFs)?
First, SSFs have a massive advantage over alternative products in their
ability to handle specific security risk as opposed to general market,
or systemic, risk. After all, if you want to adjust your risk exposure
to IBM, then trade IBM futures, not S&P 500 futures. This argues that
the availability of SSFs should be a function, in part, of the specific
risk for each security.
Second, the best place to measure volatility is the one market dependent
thereon, options. If we view options as a form of insurance and
we should - then volatility represents the price traders are willing to
pay for a measure of certainty. High volatility indicates demand for risk
protection, and it is the job of exchanges to answer this call. Another
consideration here is the likely synergies between options trading and
SSF trading.
Finally, exchanges need to remember a truism from the petroleum industry,
and that is the best place to look for oil is where youve already
found it. Quite simply, theres no better indication of the markets
demand for risk management and price discovery than existing trade volume.
The Proof Is In The Pudding
Will exchanges paying attention to their customers interests as
defined above lead to successful SSF products? Empirical evidence suggests
combining these factors into a proprietary objective function can be confirmed
by trading volume in individual equity options, the products most similar
to SSFs. Our research indicates that combining the variables linked to
customer demand is rewarded with exponentially accelerating volume.
The implications of this objective function for SSF acceptance are astonishing.
The very phenomena that produce backward bending volume curves elsewhere,
such as overnight and early morning gaps, high volatility, and a great
deal of stock specific risk should increase demand for SSFs.
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