Your Seat in Our Class Has Been Reserved!

To complete your order and finalize your enrollment please checkout below.

For additional questions or to order by phone, please call 800.542.1022

PFGBEST is proud to bring you Introduction to Futures Trading – On Demand.  In a video archive of our popular trading course, you may replay the course on your own time, at your own pace and and as often as you would like!

Hosted by instructor Curt Wagaman, Introduction to Futures Trading On-Demand includes 24 archived recordings from your class session, an Introduction to Futures Course Workbook and features an added Resource Center containing course handouts, readings, homework assignments, quizzes/exams and more!

One copy per order, subject to terms and conditions.  For additional questions or to order by phone, please call 800.542.1022.

INTRODUCTION TO FUTURES TRADING ON-DEMAND
WINTER SEMESTER 2012

INTRODUCTION TO FUTURES TRADING – ON DEMAND PRICING

ORDER YOUR COPY TODAY!

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Wednesday, April 25, 2012 at 4:04 PM

E Mini S&P settles 1387.25 up 17.25

Stock futures rose across the board on Wednesday giving the NASDAQ its biggest gain of the year after Apple’s earnings easily beat expectations, while Fed Chairman Bernanke, in a press conference put investors on ease saying the Fed would be there if needed to offer more stimulus if conditions warrant. Central bankers today upgraded their forecasts for economic growth and unemployment while repeating their view that borrowing costs are likely to remain “exceptionally low” at least through late 2014. The Fed statement and their outlook was very similar to the outlook they gave in last month’s testimony but Bernanke’s comments on QE3, soothed investor fears. It’s important to remember that during testimony given by the Chairman in late February, Bernanke soured on the prospects of more QE3. Today’s testimony differed in that the Fed Chairman said more stimulus measures would not be taken off the table and that the Fed’s intention “is to maintain a highly accommodative stance of policy for the foreseeable future; it is not unconditional, but depends how outlook evolves”.  It can be then be argued that the Fed is providing an insurance policy to the economy. Apple’s blowout results after the bell yesterday along with today’s Fed commentary were the top drivers for the session. Even a very weak Durable Goods number couldn’t derail today’s rally.  The March reading of Durable Goods were down 4.2 percent on a month on month basis; orders ex-transportation were negative1.1 percent on the month. Important economic data tomorrow on Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales while earnings releases are highlighted by Chrysler, PepsiCo, and Barclay’s. Please call or email me with any questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESM2
R2-1399.75
R1-1393.50
Pivot-1381.50
S1-1375.25
S2-1363.25

Daily Swing #s YMM2
R2-13117
R1-13078
Pivot-13017
S1-12978
S2- 12917

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

by Mike Daly, PFGBEST

1-877-294-4669

mdaly@PFGBEST.com
Wednesday, April 25, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Gold Settled $1.50 Lower … ($1642.30)

Today’s June Gold futures traded a choppy and volatile $20.70 as FOMC comments once again are not what the “bulls” were looking for. The FOMC released a statement at 11; 30 am cst…
The statement was almost exactly the same as they issued in March. (See highlights below)
• Fed says U.S Economy is expanding moderately…
• Housing sector remains depressed…
• Low interest rates through 2014…
• Inflation has risen slightly due to higher energy prices…
• Labor market has show improvement in recent months…

The June gold futures was trading around the $1640 level at the time of the FOMC‘s statement release. And with no mention once again about a QE 3 or the possibility of more stimulus the Gold market tanked and traded as low as $1625.00 5 minutes after the Fed’s statement.
Evidently traders and investors saw last month’s Jobs data as a sign of a slowing economy.
The Gold market did however make a miraculous comeback the last hour of the day session to close $1.50 lower for the day…

The demand for physical has been sluggish and has not been an underlying support recently.
The market has been trading above and below the $1640.00 level seemingly forever…
Traders have been using the $1640 level as a psychological pivot level….

May Silver settled .39 cents lower… ($30.35.6 per ounce)…

ECONOMIC DATA 4/26
Export Sales………………7:30 am cst.
Initial Jobless Claims…….7:30 am.cst.

MY SWING NUMBERS 4/26
JUNE GOLD
RESISTANCE # 2……………$1659.00
RESISTANCE # 1……………$1651.00
PIVOT…………………………$1638.00
SUPPORT # 1………………..$1630.00
SUPPORT # 2………………..$1617.00
VOLUME………………………108,000

MAY SILVER
RESISTANCE # 2…………….$31.46
RESISTANCE # 1…………….$30.91
PIVOT…………………………$30.42
SUPPORT # 1………………..$29.86
SUPPORT # 2………………..$39.46
VOLUME……………………   47,000

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

1-800-280-4566

rshort@PFGBEST.com 

Wednesday, April 25, 2012 at 9:25 a.m. Central:

Hogs:

June hogs closed 125 points lower yesterday as they were pulled lower with a limit-down cattle futures market. We put a small 21 cents on product last night, but are still 47 cents lower for the week. Cash hogs were, for the most part, steady yesterday and for the week. Remember, we are in the strongest cash hog season of the year. Cash hog prices go higher from the second week in April into the third week of May, but this year we are still going nowhere.

The lean hog index lost 9 points yesterday (8265) and is down 15 for the week against a 2-year average increase of 20 points for the first two days of this week. June futures are now a 390 premium to the index with July a 527 premium. The 3-year average premium for June is 269 and for July the three year average is 335.

As traders are looking for the normal seasonal strength in pork product and cash hogs in late April into June, we are very slowly putting a bigger than normal premium basis back into futures. For the first time in the last several months we are going to a bigger premium than last year and above the 3- to 5-year averages. This is OK for this time of year, but we will need to see up money on pork product on good daily/weekly volumes in the near future or we will see the higher-than-normal premium basis be taken back to a more normal level.

June hog futures are now 1200 points lower for the last eight weeks with help from a June cattle future break of 1600 points over the last 10 weeks. Both markets worried that high gasoline prices would limit retail demand for red meat. Add in a little “pink slime” scare along the way and yesterday’s California mad cow problem and we now find traders unsure what should be the next trade.

On the plus side for higher seasonal hog futures is the ever-so-slow decline in gasoline prices. We have had a 5-cent correction in the average national gas price over the last two weeks. This is too small to mean anything at the present time, but with oil prices down a little over 6% in the last eight weeks, we will be watching gasoline prices in the month of May. Should prices continue to work lower it could be price supportive going forward,

The near-term negative pork fundamental centers on the retail price of pork. U.S.D.A. retail scanner data for meats shows pork prices in March being 4% higher than December at a time when wholesale pork prices are 18% under last year and approximately 14% under December.

Retailers have elected to keep retail margins on the high side as they are seeing consumer resistance to higher priced beef. That absence of willingness to lower retail pork prices is not an encouraging sign for higher hog futures going forward. Remember, June futures have closed  lower for the month of May in five of the last eight years. We already have a larger than normal premium built into present June and July prices. One continued worry is the fact that cash belly prices are still headed lower, This is the first pork item to start higher as slicers gear up for the summer BLT season.

There is not enough friendly daily fundamentals to get long June hog futures. Traders want no part of the short side going into May, but daily fundamentals continue to disappoint.

For the time being we are long June hogs against short June cattle when June cattle traded 2700 or more over June hogs. This spread closed with June cattle 2502 over June hogs and this now gives us a lead big enough to put up with random daily noise. We look to add in the near future. Should pork product and cash hogs start their seasonal higher pricing we will be long June hog futures. At present you can’t be short.

Cattle:

A California dairy cow was found to have BSE (Mad Cow) and this put the market limit-down yesterday. This is the fourth case since December of 2003 and assuming additional cases aren’t found we can forget this 1-day event. There will be some lingering concerns on Japanese reaction as they cancelled all beef purchases in 2004. Nine years after our first Mad Cow case Japan is only buying about half of what they were buying in 2003. There is some floor chatter today about two South Korean grocery chains cancelling U.S. beef, but at present it is only a rumor.

This is the peak demand time for spring/summer pre-bookings of beef. On the plus side we see choice beef up $1.93 for the week with select up $2.62. Unfortunately the two day volume of 319 loads is almost 16% less than last week and 7% under the 343 loads reported for the first two days of this week in 2011.

Cash cattle should be at best steady this week as a large discount in April will allow hedges to be lifted as sellers can take lower money and make up the difference on the lifting of the wider than normal hedge.

We have talked for the last six weeks about the strong possibility of June cattle futures going to contract lows of $112. With a large amount of BSE pressure we closed at $111.57 last night. A normal late April to mid-July cash cattle break would put present cash cattle, now at $122 to $125, somewhere around $105 with June futures in the high $90 area. Most traders think a 4-month break of 30 cents a pound is impossible. I’m not so sure. Where we go into late June and July will depend on gasoline pricing and outside influences and don’t forget that last year June cattle futures had a 10-week correction to the downside of almost 21 cents/lb.

We are short June cattle against long June hogs when June cattle traded 2700 over June hogs. We have a 200-point lead and we will look to add should daily pork fundaments turn for their seasonal better.

Several days ago I told you we could try a  short term trade of buying June cattle in the $113.90 to $115.50 area, and that we would not be getting rich on this trade. Hopefully you did use the protective stop at $113.62 to limit the trade to a small loss. Getting caught in a BSE rumor, now fact, is not fun.

We are coming into the weakest demand time of the year for wholesale beef and cash cattle. How much of this seasonal weakness has been priced into the early 10 week correction of over 1500 points (12%) will depend on upcoming box beef prices and volume. At this time of year we want to sell a rally unless beef packers cut daily harvest levels enough to keep a bid on choice and select beef cuts.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Energy  Market Comments

by Phil Flynn, PFGBEST

1-800-935-6487

pflynn@PFGBEST.com

Wednesday, April 25, 2012 at 7:40 AM

The Energy Report for Wednesday, April 25, 2012

By Phil Flynn 800-935-6487

It is Fed Day and what better day to talk about the Federal Reserve’s impact on oil price than Fed Day itself. As we all know, the Federal Reserve has taken historic actions to try to keep our economy afloat, yet if you think there are not consequences to Fed action, then you are not paying attention. As the outcry against speculators and speculation reach dizzying heights, a study of Fed action and their direct correlation to the increase in volume and open interest as well as price, is quite clear. As the critics of speculation decry the massive surge in oil, there is only the Fed to blame.

In a world of quantitative easing and historic global stimulus, investors have more and more confidence in the price of oil than they do in government bonds. The reason is clear and that is because there is a high risk of losing money when you buy US government bonds as compared to the possible rate of inflation. Concerning government bonds across the globe, either the risk is too high or the yield is too low. This is a fundamental reason why money has flowed into oil. Investors have more faith in oil than they do some banks or governments.

Now if you think that by trying to restrict money from reflecting this fundamental fact will somehow make oil cheaper, then you are sadly mistaken. In fact oil futures will become even more coveted by those who are allowed to get them and others will seek different ways to participate in a market that viewed by open interest growth has more credibility than bond markets in say Greece or Spain. If you think the fundamentals of negative interest rates or default risk will change by raising margin requirements, you are in denial of the real fundamentals of the global economy and the oil market.

Some of the moves we’ve seen in the oil market are based on Fed action and they are quite clear yet others are more opaque. The Federal Reserve has a desire to increase oil prices to avoid the look of deflation. The Fed and their policies have pumped up oil prices as quantitative easing is as simulative to the economy as an interest rate cut and it means that interest rates are negative for investment capital to seek investment and yield. That is what the Fed wanted. It just so happens that investors looked to invest and seek yield in oil. It sends a flood of money to the emerging markets thereby stimulating more oil demand and inflation. The oil prices are reflecting this devaluing of the dollar and confidence in the full faith and credit in the United States of America which is slipping dramatically.

We do know that some of the biggest one day moves in the oil market over the last 10 years were not caused by OPEC or Libya but by Fed action and central bank comments. We saw it when the Fed cut rates in 2007 when Europe was raising them was a prime example.

We also saw an Iranian war premium build and then fall. This is not speculation. This is the market reacting to the real and growing risk to worldwide crude oil supply. This was the market reacting to the buying of real barrels of oil to prepare for an Iranian oil embargo and the possible threat of war. This is a valid fundamental reason for rising oil prices and serves an invaluable economic purpose. The market will move to ration supply and decrease demand to try to protect the economy and ensure that we will have enough oil should supply be cutoff. That’s what markets need to do. They have to be defensive and anticipate. If they did not anticipate, order could be removed from the marketplace. It could lead to shortages and disruption of supply and wild price moves. Even more wild that anything we have experienced to date.

Oil Inventories and the Fed are key today! Call for my Daily Trade Levels!  See the Fed move on Fox Business where you get the Power To Prosper and me every day! Just call me – Phil Flynn – at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com.

 There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Tuesday, April 24, 2012 at 3:05 PM

E Mini S&P settles 1370.00 up 7.25

Stock futures trended higher during the early morning hours, aided by easing sovereign debt concerns in Europe particularly in Italy and the Netherlands. European shares closed higher after hitting a three month low yesterday, after the Netherlands’ successful $2.6 billion bond auction on Tuesday, despite the collapse of the Dutch government on Monday. Dow futures contracts were the sectors best performer today gaining 88 points to close up at 12,959, once flirting with the 13,000 level earlier in the session. Strong Dow components AT&T, 3M, and United Technologies all beat earnings projections before the bell igniting a rally that never stalled throughout the session. The e mini S&P followed the Dow higher for most of the day albeit for a smaller percentage gain as mixed economic data weighed on the sector. The NASDAQ was the sectors only laggard as it dropped for a sixth straight day. On the economic front, home prices dropped in February for a sixth straight month, according to the S&P/Case Schiller Home Price Index. New Home sales slid 7.1 percent in March, their lowest reading in four months. Consumer confidence dipped slightly in April to 69.2 from a downwardly revised 69.5 in March, according to the Conference Board. Going forward investors will be watching tomorrow’s post FOMC meeting communiqué and the quarterly press conference given by Bernanke tomorrow afternoon at 1:15 central. We also have a slew of earnings releases highlighted by Boeing, Caterpillar, and Motorola. Durable Goods and Weekly mortgage applications highlight the economic release calendar. Please call or email me with questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESM2
R2-1377.25
R1-1374.00
Pivot-1367.50
S1-1363.50
S2-1357.50

Weekly Swing #s YMM2
R2-13066
R1-13012
Pivot-12941
S1-12887
S2-12816

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

by Mike Daly, PFGBEST

1-877-294-4669

mdaly@PFGBEST.com

Tuesday, April 24, 2012 at 2:46 PM

Gold Settled $11.20 Higher … ($1643.80)

Today’s June Gold futures traded a quiet $15.50 range on fairly light volume as traders may be awaiting news statements from the FOMC’s two day meeting which will conclude tomorrow..

The last several times Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has spoke he has single handedly crushed the precious metals and I believe his recent record is fresh in the minds of the gold bugs

Gold traders may be waiting until after the FOMC convenes prior to choosing their trading strategies

.

Today’s price rally can be attributed to a weaker U.S. Dollar along with bad news from the housing sector. The S&P/ Case-Schiller home price index revealed that U.S Home prices dropped sharply in February to its lowest level in 10 years…

Today’s May Silver futures contract settled 21.5 Higher … ($30.74.6 per ounce)…

ECONOMIC DATA 4/25

Advanced Durable Goods…………….7:30 am. cst.

FOMC MEETING (part 2.)

MY SWING NUMBERS 4/25

JUNE GOLD

RESISTANCE # 2………..$1659.00

RESISTANCE # 1………..$1651.00

PIVOT……………………. $1643.00

SUPPORT # 1……………$1636.00

SUPPORT # 2……………$1627.00

VOLUME………………….125, 000

MAY SILVER

RESISTANCE # 2…………$31.30

RESISTANCE # 1…………$31.02

PIVOT………………………$30.83

SUPPORT # 1……………. $30.56

SUPPORT # 2……………. $30.36

VOLUME…………………..63,000

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Grains Analysis

by Tim Hannagan, PFGBEST

1-800-563-9510

thannagan@pfgbest.com

Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Tuesday, April 24:

 SPREADING………. Last week’s weekly export inspection report on Monday showed  42 million bushels of corn was asked by a US exporter to be inspected by the USDA to be shipped near-term. This was a huge jump from the 26 m.b. the week prior. Bean inspections dropped sharply. In my last report, last week I said this is the rumored  Chinese buying surfacing as it shows China slowing its bean imports to free port access or space for corn purchases and the actual sale would surface soon from the USDA. Today a sale of 480 t.m.t. of corn was sold to a unknown destination. Traders believe unknown is spelled ‘CHINA’. Don’t expect massive old crop sales to China. Most of the purchases to come will be new crop year delivery for after September 1 but this certainly supports old crop year demand psychology. Also bean sales will continue strong as Brazil is 75% sold now leaving the US as the world’s continuous number-one port for soybeans. Crop progress reports were largely ignored as planting is just getting started. Corn seeded came in at 28% complete versus the 10 year average of 18%. At 35% we will get our first crop condition report that funds trade off of very aggressively. Beans seeded were 6% versus the 10 year average of 2%. Nothing here to  trade yet. Spring wheat is 57% planted. Minnesota is 20% emerge, North Dakota 12% and Idaho 27% emerged all in  very dry conditions but possibly poised for a frost early next week. The nations  winter wheat crop remains  robust  at 63% good to excellent condition, down 1% from last week but up 5% from the first report four weeks ago and 28% better than a year ago. Soft red winter wheat in the  eastern grain belt of Illinois and Indiana have the highest ratings with Texas and Colorado in the hard red winter wheat area the lowest. There’s a couple of chances for frost damage Thursday and next Monday. Wheat traders are watching closely. Last week’s lows on corn, beans and wheat  should be the lows for the month as next week is May and traders will want to belong into the May 10 USDA crop report, expecting lower ending stocks. After all grains opened higher today with soybeans making new highs for the year, led to  traders selling corn and wheat has a short spread hedge against long bean positions. We could see this unwind on Wednesday. Technicals read like this. July corns support is 6.06 then 5.90. Resistance 6.18 then 6.36. July bean support is 14.55 then 14.25. Resistance 14.70. July wheat is finding support at 6.30 then 6.12 with resistance 6.48 then 6.58. The 14.70 July bean resistance is last year’s August high that led to a  two dollars correction. A close over and sharply higher prices will occur.

 There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report.

By Paul Kavanaugh, PFGBEST

1-888-439-6033

pkavanaugh@pfgbest.com

-31st straight week of net long US dollar bets

-Spain and Italy borrowing rates soar in latest auctions

-Large speculators increasing massive net short Euro bets

-Large speculators added to bets long Australian and Canadian dollar

CFTC data released Friday April 17th shows IMM currency speculators increased bets long of the US dollar, and increased bets long Australian and Canadian dollar. The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in speculative positions in the currencies from the prior week including the following:

Commitments of Traders Data

(Non-Commercial Net Position Data)

A significant 36.97% increase from 27,967 to 38,028 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar;

A building 38.74% increase from 9,919 to 13,762 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc;

A trimming 30.52% decrease from 18,784 to 13,051 contracts net short of the British Pound;

A minor 12.53% decrease from 66,084 to 57,803 contracts net short of the Japanese Yen;

An important 16.53% increase from 101,364 to 118,125 contracts net short of the Euro;

And a respectable 22.80% increase from 39,429 to 48,421 contracts net long of the Australian dollar.

(Source CFTC.gov)

“Take advantage of my mid-session support and resistance levels and charts via E-mail daily! To get your free trial, just send an email with “Mid-Session #s” in the subject line to pkavanaugh@pfgbest.com or call 1-888-439-6033. And if you are ready to open your account just give us a call today!”

See what PFGBEST analysts have to say about the markets for 2012…Click on this link or paste in your browser to get the PFGBEST Outlook 2012

http://www.pfgbest.com/Services/Research/Outlook/

Read my most recent contribution to SFO Magazine’s “From the Experts” Column

Sell Silver First of May, Walk Away ‘Till Labor Day?

http://bit.ly/IKLy8d

(Note: you may need to cut and paste these links into your internet browser’s address line)

Good Trading!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

by Bob Short, PFGBEST

1-800-280-4566

rshort@PFGBEST.com 

Tuesday, April 24, 2012 at 9:45 a.m. Central:

Hogs:

We lost 68 cents on pork product yesterday and are 18% under wholesale pork prices last year. In spite of sharply lower prices, daily/weekly pork volumes are little changed from levels of the last few years. Monday’s reported volume of 45 loads is the same as the 2-year average of 44 loads. Traders continue to anticipate the normal seasonal advance in pork product and cash hogs that normally starts at this time of year.

Last Friday’s Cold Storage report was a little on the friendly side as April 1 pork stocks were 613 million pounds against analysts’ expectations of 638 million pounds. This was the reason for hog futures closing 20 to 45 points higher even though cattle dipped 75 to 87 lower.

We now have a 506 premium basis in June futures and a 541 premium in July. As trader psychology is shifting to the friendly side, we see a further premium being put into futures. June hog futures’ premium of 506 goes against a 6-year average premium of 420, while July’s 541 premium compares to a 6-year average of 508. We will need to see wholesale product start to work higher with pork packers paying higher money for cash hogs, otherwise we will be making new lows in the weeks to come.

June hog futures have closed lower for the month of May in 5 of the last 8 years. The average down year finds June down 312 points for the month while the three higher years averaged 237 higher. Clearly, we need to find a bottom for pork product and cash hogs.

June futures closed at 8780 last night; if we don’t see near-term product strength, we may need to go to contract lows of 8450. July went home at 8815 with a contract low of 8790.

After a 7-week downslide in hog futures, traders are trying to find a reason to get long June and/or July futures. We still have not found enough evidence of 18% lower pork prices encouraging any extended interest by retailers to pay higher money on increasing daily/weekly volumes. We are back to being stuck until something changes in the near-term demand picture. At this time of year it is best to be out or long hog futures, but until we find some sustained product strength, we will watch from the sidelines.

We are long June hog futures against short October futures as the only near-term way to trade in the hog complex. This is a seasonal trade at a double bottom on daily bar charts.

Cattle:

Cattle futures closed 75 to 87 lower yesterday as traders decided Friday’s Cold Storage report was a little negative for April 1 beef stocks. The U.S. Department of Agriculture told us that we have 508 million pounds of beef in cold storage warehouses. Since this was 61 million pounds over the average analyst estimate, we got some downside pressure Monday.

We did put 56 cents on choice beef last night, but volume was low at 136 loads. It still appears we have priced ourselves out of retail beef demand after a very large $11.87 choice beef rally over the last 7 days. Retailers held off buying early grilling bookings as they watch prices going to the basement. It is human nature to wait and buy at a later date if you think you can get a lower price. When you fear the bottom may be in, all hell breaks loose and everyone wants to buy at the low. Should this week’s beef volume be as disappointing as last week, we are probably headed lower on the strongest beef seasonal of the year that sees beef prices going lower into July and sometimes early August.

The only positive for cattle futures at the present time is a live cattle market that appears to be in a very current condition in spite of beef packers cutting harvest levels to get their operating margins back to respectability. In the last 3 weeks, we find Texas, Kansas and Nebraska show lists increasing 42,000 head against a 29,000-head increase last year. While these numbers are not that large, they show that we are backing cattle into later delivery dates, and this is putting additional pounds on each and every animal. We would need something out of left field to turn psychology friendly and take some of the discount out of futures. A sharply lower gas price or stock indices going higher would be the motivator, but neither appears to be about to happen.

Decent beef exports have become old news.

We talked last week about the tendency for a large move in cattle futures to be followed with 2 to 3 weeks of indecision by traders as to what the next direction will be. We should be breaking out of this go-nowhere trend no later than next week. At this time it still looks like high gasoline prices are keeping consumers from the beef side of the meat case. June contract lows of $112 still appear to be the direction of least resistance.

We want to go back to being short June cattle against long June hogs anytime June cattle trade 2700 to 2850 over June hogs. This trade made us 450 to 600 points the last time we got in. Let’s try this very strong seasonal trade again.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Energy  Market Comments

 by Phil Flynn, PFGBEST

 1-800-935-6487

pflynn@PFGBEST.com

Tuesday, April 24, 2012 at 7:54 AM

The Energy Report

Natural gas pops on a last blast of snow and cold at the end of April. A nor’easter seemed to give natural gas bulls hope that perhaps a bottom may be in for natural gas or perhaps it is just a snow job. As tempting as it might be to believe in a bottom, the truth is that it’s unlikely that this last blast of winter can offer any real long term support to the natural gas market. Despite the fact that the storm dumped as much as 10 inches of snow in some cities and knocked out power in others it is still too little too late to save this poor market.

You see the problem is that natural gas supply should continue to exceed demand as liquid fuels continue to subsidize a collapsing natural gas price. Consider the report from the Energy Information Agency that showed that new well starts in the Eagle Ford region in Texas increased 110% from January through March, 2012 compared to the same period in 2011, according to reporting and analysis by BENTEK Energy LLC (Bentek). The report showed that operators started drilling 856 new wells in January through March, 2012 compared to 407 in January through March, 2011. In early April, 2012, the Eagle Ford active rig count set a new high of 217 units. The increased drilling and rig deployment translated into higher crude oil and condensate production, which is projected to average over 500 thousand barrels per day in April, up from 82 thousand barrels per day in April 2011.

Eagle Ford rigs hit a record high in April and they are producing a whopping 2 billion cubic feet of gas a day and they show no sign of slowing production. That is because they can get crude oil cheap not to mention other wet, natural gas resources.

Oil prices got hit on economic concerns from China to Europe. Spain had another bad bond auction as their yields hit the highest level since January. Yet oil is showing resilience as Iran is still a reason to not get too bearish. Iran has been hit with a cyber attack that is infecting their computers and is being hit with a from Obama to hit Syria and Iran with new sanctions. The AFP reported that Iran warned that new U.S. sanctions targeting its access to surveillance technology were “negative” and could “adversely affect its crucial talks next month with world powers over Tehran’s nuclear program”. 

That is despite that fact that global inventories are bulging. Iran has tankers filled with crude that no one is buying. Even China purchases of Iranian crude has fallen 54% below year ago levels.

Bloomberg News reported that, “Global oil inventories will increase “sharply” in the first half of the year, putting pressure on prices, unless OPEC cuts production, according to the Centre for Global Energy Studies.” Stockpiles rose by 1.3 million barrels a day in the first three months of the year as output increased, marking the “first significant quarterly stock build since 2008,” the London-based center said in an e-mailed report. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may need to cut supplies by 1.5 million barrels a day by the end of year to support prices at $100 a barrel, CGES said.”

Iraqi production is soaring. Penn Energy reports that Iraq is building more export terminals. “The work and tests of the second floating oil terminal have been completed and it is ready to start loading within the coming 24 hours,” one source from South Oil Company told Reuters on Thursday. In an effort to encourage greater oil production, Iraq initiated a plan to construct four new offshore oil transportation terminals along the narrow strip of coast in the southeast of the country. Eventually, each platform would be capable of shipping as much as 850,000 barrels per day each, or 3.4 million barrels per day in total. Reuters reports that the southern oil fields in Iraq are expected to increase production by around 600,000 barrels per day over the course the year.

We are talking snow in late April! Does it not make you worry a bit about global warming? Don’t worry! MSNBC reported that British environmental guru James Lovelock, admits he was “alarmist” about climate change in the past. It is said that James Lovelock was the maverick scientist who became a guru to the environmental movement with his “Gaia” theory of the earth as a single organism now admits to being “alarmist” about climate change and says other environmental commentators, such as Al Gore, are too.

Lovelock, 92, is writing a new book in which he will say climate change is still happening, but not as quickly as he once feared. He previously painted some of the direst visions of the effects of climate change. In 2006, in an article in the U.K.’s Independent newspaper, he wrote that, “before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable.” However, the professor admitted in a telephone interview with msnbc.com that he now thinks he had been “extrapolating too far.” 

In 2007, Time magazine named Lovelock as one of 13 leaders and visionaries in an article on “Heroes of the Environment,” which also included Gore, Mikhail Gorbachev and Robert Redford. “Jim Lovelock has no university, no research institute, no students. His almost unparalleled influence in environmental science is based instead on a particular way of seeing things,” Oliver Morton, of the journal Nature wrote in Time. 

Of course when I questioned the panic over global warming I had the left slinging arrows. Looks like I was right the whole time.

Make sure you get it right! Tune to the Fox Business Network where you can get the Power to Prosper and me every day ! Also make sure you are getting my Daily Trade Levels! Call me – Phil Flynn – 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Your Copy Has Been Reserved!

To complete your order and receive your student discount please checkout below

For additional questions or to order by phone, please call 800.542.1022

On-Demand Terms and Conditions (Agreement)

This is a legal contract by and between Peregrine Financial Group, Inc., its successors and assigns, referred to collectively in this document as “PFGBEST”, and the party executing this document, referred to collectively as “student”.

Risk Disclosure

Commodity futures, options, off-exchange foreign currency products and other forms of alternative investment involves a substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Intent

Information and materials provided in this on-demand course is for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Examples and Results

Examples, projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness, do not reflect actual investment results, do not take in consideration commission, margin, interest and other costs, and are not guarantees of future results. The examples given in this course may not be suitable for every investor.

No Guarantees

This course has been designed to provide a basic market introduction. By purchasing this course, student understands they do so at their own risk and that there are no guarantees of future trading profits or performance.

Guest Speakers

Guest speakers host periodic class lectures throughout the duration of the course. By purchasing this course, student understands and agrees that guest speakers do not reflect the opinions of PFGBEST and agree to hold harmless PFGBEST, PFGBEST’s affiliates, employees, agents, successors and assigns from claims resulting in loss.

Terms of Use

By purchasing this course student agrees and acknowledges that all materials herein, including but not limited to course recordings, transcripts, materials, workbooks and course resources the are exclusive intellectual property of PFGBEST. Student further agrees that all materials herein, including but not limited to course recordings, transcripts, materials, workbooks and course resources may not be reproduced, retransmitted, redistributed or used in any other way without written consent of its compliance officer. Student further agrees to the use of such recordings and transcripts thereof as evidence by either party in connection with any dispute that may arise involving the student and PFGBEST.

License, Refund Policy, Private Use Provision and Termination

By purchasing this course, student will receive one (1) non-refundable license for their own private use. Student further agrees and acknowledges that sharing or dissemination of course login and/or materials represents a breach of private use. In such circumstance, PFGBEST at its own discretion may terminate the license without refund and student will be responsible for and pay promptly to PFGBEST all damages, costs and expenses, including attorney’s fees, incurred by PFGBEST in the enforcement of this provision. Should student instigate any legal action against PFGBEST and is unsuccessful, student agrees to indemnify PFGBEST for all cost PFGBEST incurs, including but not limited to attorneys’ fees. This Agreement shall continue in effect until termination. PFGBEST may terminate this Agreement at any time, in PFGBEST’s sole discretion, under terms of breach of private use. If PFGBEST elects to terminate this Agreement, termination shall be effective upon the transmittal of written notice of termination to student. Student’s obligations to PFGBEST arising out of breach of private use or indemnification shall survive the termination of this Agreement.

Non-Professional Use Provision

By purchasing this course student acknowledges that they are a non-industry professional. This includes but is not limited to an employee, family member, agent, representative, associated person, principal or officer of an NFA registered FCM/FDM, Introducing Broker, CTA or CPO. Student further acknowledges that they are not an employee, family member, agent, representative, associated person, principal or officer of a non-registered industry firm. In the event of failure to comply with terms of the non-professional use provision, PFGBEST, at its own discretion, may terminate the license without refund and student will be responsible for and pay promptly to PFGBEST all damages, costs and expenses, including attorney’s fees, incurred by PFGBEST in the enforcement of this provision.

No Waiver or Amendment

No provision of this Agreement may be waived or amended unless the waiver or amendment is in writing and signed by both student and an authorized officer of PFGBEST. No waiver or amendment of this Agreement may be implied from any course of dealing between the party or from any failure by PFGBEST or PFGBEST’s agents to assert PFGBEST’s right under this Agreement on any occasion or series of occasions. No oral agreements or instructions to the contrary shall be recognized or enforceable. This instrument embodies the entire agreement of the party, superseding any and all prior written and oral agreements and there are no other terms, conditions or obligations other than those contained herein.

Indemnification

By purchasing this course, student agrees to the terms of this agreement and agrees to indemnify and hold harmless PFGBEST, PFGBEST’s affiliates, employees, agents, successors and assigns from and against any and all liabilities, losses, damages, costs and expenses, including attorney’s fees, incurred by PFGBEST arising out of student’s failure to fully perform student’s agreements herein. Student also agrees to be responsible for and pay promptly to PFGBEST all damages, costs and expenses, including attorney’s fees, incurred by PFGBEST in the enforcement of any of the provisions of this Agreement and any other agreements between PFGBEST and student. Should student instigate any legal action against PFGBEST and is unsuccessful, student agrees to indemnify PFGBEST for all cost PFGBEST incurs, including but not limited to attorneys’ fees.

Consent to Jurisdiction and Venue

Student agrees that all actions, disputes, claims or proceedings arising directly or indirectly in connection with, out of, or
related to or from this Agreement or any other agreement between the student and PFGBEST, whether or not initiated by PFGBEST, shall be adjudicated only in courts or other dispute resolution forums whose situs is within the City of Chicago, State of Illinois. Student hereby specifically consents and submits to the jurisdiction of any State or Federal Court, or proceedings located within the City of Chicago, State of Illinois. Student waives any claim student may have that (a) Student is not personally subject to the jurisdiction of any State or Federal Court or proceeding located within the State of Illinois, (b) Student is immune from any legal process (whether through service or notice, attachment prior to judgment, attachment in aid of execution, execution or otherwise) with respect to student or student’s property, (c) any such suit, action or proceeding is brought in an inconvenient forum, (d) the venue of any such suit, action or proceeding is improper, or (e) this consent or this Agreement may not be enforced in or by such court or proceeding. Student further acknowledges that PFGBEST may elect to collect penalties relating to breach of this contract by instigating a court proceeding against student. Nothing in this Agreement shall be construed as to prevent PFGBEST from proceeding in a judicial forum of PFGBEST’s choice. Should student have instigated a claim or proceeding, student acknowledges that PFGBEST shall not be compelled to bring its claim, if any, in the forum nor shall student seek to stay PFGBEST’s proceedings against student pending resolution of the proceeding. No action, regardless of form, arising out of transactions under this Agreement may be brought by the student more than one year
after the cause of action arose.

Close

PFGBEST is proud to bring you Introduction to Futures Trading – On Demand.  In a video archive of our Winter 2012 Semester, you may replay and “relive the experience” of the course on your own time, at your own pace and and as often as you would like!

Hosted by instructor Curt Wagaman, Introduction to Futures Trading On-Demand includes 24 archived recordings from your class session, an Introduction to Futures Course Workbook and features an added Resource Center containing course handouts, readings, homework assignments, quizzes/exams and more!

As a course student you are eligible to purchase Introduction to Futures Trading – On Demand at a one time, 50% off introductory price.

Discounted pricing is available until May 27, 2012 and valid for course students only.  One license per student, subject to terms and conditions.  For additional questions, please call 800.542.1022.

Relieve the experience – Reserve your copy of Introduction to Futures Trading On-Demand today!

INTRODUCTION TO FUTURES TRADING ON-DEMAND
WINTER SEMESTER 2012

ON-DEMAND PRICING AND STUDENT DISCOUNT

RESERVE YOUR COPY NOW!

For additional questions or to order by phone, please call 800.542.1022

INTRODUCTION TO FUTURES TRADING ON-DEMAND
EDUCATED TRADERS BECOME SUCCESSFUL TRADERS

PFGBEST is proud to introduce Introduction to Futures Trading On-Demand – an interactive trading course designed to teach new traders the basics and initial steps of trading in the futures markets.

In a classroom style setting, this 12 week online course is designed to help you make an educated decision when considering trading and answer a simple but often overlooked question – Is Futures Trading for Me?

Instructed by Curt Wagaman of PFGBEST, below you will find archived class session recordings, an Introduction to Futures Course Workbook and a Resource Center containing course handouts, readings, homework assignments, quizzes, exams and more.

WINTER SEMESTER 2012
 SATURDAY SESSION

Course Workbook	Resource Center
Week 1	Week 2
Week 3	Week 4
Week 5	Week 6
Week 7 (Part 1)	Week 7 (Part 2)
Week 8 (Part 1)	Week 8 (Part 2)
Week 9 (Part 1)	Week 9 (Part 2)
Week 10	Week 11 (Part 1)
Week 11 (Part 2)	Week 12

INTRODUCTION TO FUTURES TRADING ON-DEMAND
EDUCATED TRADERS BECOME SUCCESSFUL TRADERS

PFGBEST is proud to introduce Introduction to Futures Trading On-Demand – an interactive trading course designed to teach new traders the basics and initial steps of trading in the futures markets.

In a classroom style setting, this 12 week online course is designed to help you make an educated decision when considering trading and answer a simple but often overlooked question – Is Futures Trading for Me?

Instructed by Curt Wagaman of PFGBEST, below you will find archived class session recordings, an Introduction to Futures Course Workbook and a Resource Center containing course handouts, readings, homework assignments, quizzes, exams and more.

WINTER SEMESTER 2012
 EVENING SESSION

Course Workbook	Resource Center
Week 1 Class 1	Week 1 Class 2
Week 2 Class 1	Week 2 Class 2
Week 3 Class 1	Week 3 Class 2
Week 4 Class 1	Week 4 Class 2
Week 5 Class 1	Week 5 Class 2
Week 6 Class 1	Week 6 Class 2
Week 7 Class 1	Week 7 Class 2
Week 8 Class 1	Week 8 Class 2
Week 9 Class 1	Week 9 Class 2
Week 10 Class 1	Week 10 Class 2
Week 11 Class 1	Week 11 Class 2
Week 12 Class 1	Week 12 Class 2

INTRODUCTION TO FUTURES TRADING ON-DEMAND
EDUCATED TRADERS BECOME SUCCESSFUL TRADERS

PFGBEST is proud to introduce Introduction to Futures Trading On-Demand – an interactive trading course designed to teach new traders the basics and initial steps of trading in the futures markets.

In a classroom style setting, this 12 week online course is designed to help you make an educated decision when considering trading and answer a simple but often overlooked question – Is Futures Trading for Me?

Instructed by Curt Wagaman of PFGBEST, below you will find archived class session recordings, an Introduction to Futures Course Workbook and a Resource Center containing course handouts, readings, homework assignments, quizzes, exams and more.

WINTER SEMESTER 2012
 AFTERNOON SESSION

Course Workbook	Resource Center
Week 1 Class 1	Week 1 Class 2
Week 2 Class 1	Week 2 Class 2
Week 3 Class 1	Week 3 Class 2
Week 4 Class 1	Week 4 Class 2
Week 5 Class 1	Week 5 Class 2
Week 6 Class 1	Week 6 Class 2
Week 7 Class 1	Week 7 Class 2
Week 8 Class 1	Week 8 Class 2
Week 9 Class 1	Week 9 Class 2
Week 10 Class 1	Week 10 Class 2
Week 11 Class 1	Week 11 Class 2
Week 12 Class 1	Week 12 Class 2