Hogs:
There’s very little to talk about this a.m. We lost 39 cents on pork product last night and are now 80 cents lower for the first two days of this week. Last year we were up $1.39 in product and in 2010 we were $1.54 higher for the first two days of this week. Pork packer operating margin is a negative $4.34 against a 3-year average positive operating margin of $2.76. April hog futures closed with a 287-point premium to the 8695 lean hog index; the 3-year average there is 305.
Other than a weaker pork product market this week, there is little else to say.

We are short April hog futures between 8900 and 9050, looking for the normal shift in trader psychology going into March. Traders know we have a seasonal harvest increase into March and April and this will tend to break pork product and cash hogs. Most years we find April futures at a 200- to 300-point discount to the lean hog index by the first or second week of March.

We have a monthly cold storage report today at 2:00 p.m. The average analyst estimate is for pork stocks to have increased by 54 million pounds for a total pork stock number of 540 million pounds as of February 1.  Although this is less than last year’s increase of 63 million pounds, it is way above the 19 million pound 5-year average; if this is the number that shows up in today’s report, we could expect addition selling pressure into Thursday and Friday.

We are short three units of April hog futures against long June and will add a fourth unit when April futures trade 1000 under June.

Cattle:
April cattle futures had a quiet day yesterday after last week’s 465-point rally on cash cattle trading a surprise $5 to $6 higher. Beef packers have pushed choice box beef a large $3.70 higher for the first two days of this week, but 2-day box volume of 342 loads is 13% less than last week and 30% less than last year. With wholesale pork product 5% under last year and wholesale beef 15% over last year you have to wonder where second quarter beef demand will come from.

Beef packer operating margins are going to get worse over the next few weeks as we went home last night with a negative $40 per head margin; with that and the $5 to $6 higher paid for cash cattle last week, packers will be forced to push box beef higher and watch demand slow. It appears beef packer operating margins will be heading back to losses of around $100 per head for the third time since December.

Most technical bar charts show $131 to $133.50 as the possible high for April futures. There is nothing to do at the moment as the market has gone too far too fast to buy, and then there’s a monthly Cattle On Feed report (COF) Friday. There is a bar chart uptrend line around $131.20 that might give us a 1- or 2-day correction should traders take profits in front of Friday’s COF report.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Energy  Market Comments

by Phil Flynn, PFGBEST

 1-800-935-6487

pflynn@PFGBEST.com

Wednesday, February 22, 2012 at 7:05 AM

The Energy Report for Wednesday, February 22, 2012

By Phil Flynn 800-935-6487

The odds of conflict with Iran continue to rise as it appear talks that could be the last chance to stop events from spinning out of control seem to be dead on arrival. Oil prices which really looked beyond the symbolic Iranian cut of oil to the UK and France, seemed to start to focus a bit more on latest deal to save Greece and a surging stock market. Yet oil already up got another dollar spike when Bloomberg News reported that Iran’s foreign Minister basically said that talks about Iran’s nuclear program were off the table. Many had hoped that the resumption of talks between the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran was a possible way out of this crisis. Those dreams were seemingly put to rest when a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry Ramin Mehmanparast, said that when it comes to Iran’s “right to peaceful nuclear energy there is nothing to negotiate.” So much for the olive branch, it seems the tree just fell down.

And if there was a scramble for supply before these comments, there was a spike after. This comes as Iran threatens preemptive strikes against its enemies. Mohammad Hejaz, deputy head of the General Staff of Iranian Armed Forces, warned that Iran could make use of all our means to protect our national interests and hit a retaliatory blow at them whenever we feel that enemies want to endanger our national interests.”

the pressure on Iran is rising as Bloomberg News reports that, "China, the biggest buyer of Iranian crude, cut purchases to the lowest level in five months in January even as its total oil imports rose after trading companies in the two nations failed to renew supply contracts. Imports from Iran fell to 2.08 million metric tons, or about 493,000 barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations from data released today by the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs. That’s the lowest rate since August and 14 percent less than the average 575,000 barrels bought daily in December. China’s total crude imports rose 6.8 percent from a month earlier to 5.5 million barrels a day."

Also as Bloomberg reports refiners in Japan are holding off from signing oil-supply contracts from Iran, people with knowledge of the talks said, while China International United Petroleum & Chemical Co. agreed to most terms of a 2012 deal with the Islamic republic, according to three other people. At least three Japanese refiners that buy crude from the Persian Gulf nation haven’t renewed annual contracts with National Iranian Oil Co., pending direction from the government, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the information is confidential. The contracts are for more than 100,000 barrels a day of crude, about a third of Japan’s imports from Iran, according to data supplied by the people.

In other words China and Japan are putting the screws to Iran to buy oil at a discount and why not. If they do not buy it, who will?

Make sure you are calling for my daily trade levels! Get your free trial and open your account by calling me - Phil Flynn - at 800-935-6487. Also get the “Power to Prosper”  and me every day by tuning to the Fox Business Network!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

E Mini S&P settles 1360.00 up .25

Stock futures dipped in afternoon trading on Tuesday as the mini Dow futures contract broke the 13,000 level for the first time since May 2008, the latest big move in the stock market’s recent rally. Greece’s securing a bailout to avoid disorderly default initially supported stock futures even as many investors had said the news was priced into the market already. Climbing energy prices caused investors to sell into the rally today as crude oil rose almost three percent to over $106 a barrel over Iran supply worries. Signs of improvement in the economy and stabilization of Europe’s debt crisis have driven the Dow more than twenty percent higher since late last year, while the S&P 500 has climbed more than eight percent so far this year. Euro Zone finance ministers agreed on a 130 billion Euro($172 billion) rescue for Greece to avert an imminent chaotic default after forcing Athens to commit to unpopular cuts and private bondholders to take bigger losses. Even with the bailout, Greece faces a long road to economic recovery. European Union officials said the Greek economy will only return to growth in 2014 after a recession that will shrink output by 17 percent. In earnings news, results from retailers were mixed. Wal-Mart missed expectations on its quarterly profits as it shares fell more than four percent. However Home Depot shares finished slightly higher after the chain’s quarterly profit beat estimates. Tomorrow is light on the economic calendar with only existing home sales to be released at 9am central. Please call or email me at anytime with questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESH2

R2-1375.50

R1-1367.75

Pivot-1361.75

S1-1354.00

S2-1348.00

Daily Swing #s YMH2

R2-13079

R1-13011

Pivot-12956

S1-12888

S2-12833

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Precious Metals Market Comments

by Mike Daly, PFGBEST

1-877-294-4669

mdaly@PFGBEST.com

Tuesday, February 21, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Gold Settled $32.60 Higher … ($1758.50)

Today’s April Gold Futures session traded a vast $32.60 range as traders and investors used today’s economic and geo-political news choose the precious metals as their currency of choice. Early on we learned that after several months of negotiations Greece was awarded their 130 billion Euro’s it needed to avoid a March bankruptcy The bailout is seen as “bullish” for the Euro and therefore negative for the U.S Dollar. A weaker Dollar is “bullish” for Gold.

Gold was even further fueled as Crude Oil sky rocketed as tensions inside Iran continue to grow. Iran is feeling the effect of the sanctions imposed by the West for its continued enrichment of uranium in order to achieve nuclear capability. The Iranians are concerned there may be a military strike against its nuclear facilities and today Mohammad Hejazi the deputy head of the Islamic republic’s armed forces stated “We do not wait for enemies to take action against us “and added “We will use all our means to protect our interests”. The sabre rattling has gone to the next level and has speculators concerned that any warring environment in the region would affect the supply and transportation of Crude Oil. Higher Crude oil prices are considered inflationary and therefore (normally) would be “bullish for Gold”. March Crude oil futures traded as high as $106.07 per barrel as of this post. ($2.70 plus higher)…….

MY SWING NUMBERS 2/22

APRIL GOLD

RESISTANCE # 2…………$1780.00

RESISTANCE # 1…………$1769.00

PIVOT……………………...$1748.00

SUPPORT # 1……………..$1737.00

SUPPORT # 2……………..$1710.00

VOLUME……………………181,000

MARCH SILVER

RESISTANCE # 2…………$35.21

RESISTANCE # 1…………$34.81

PIVOT……………………...$34.07

SUPPORT # 1……………..$33.69

SUPPORT # 2……………..$32.93

VOLUME…………………..51,000

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

by Bob Short, PFGBEST

1-800-280-4566

rshort@PFGBEST.com 

Feb. 21, 2012 at 9:40 a.m. Central:

Hogs:

Last Friday, we put 55 cents on pork product and put $1.73 on product for the week. The lean hog index went home for the week at 8710 and this was down 55 for the week, and put April hog futures at a 327 premium against a 3-year average premium of 246 points.

It has been several months since April hog futures have been a greater premium to the lean hog index than the 3-year average. Most of last week’s 352-point rally came about when shorts covered on Tuesday (April up 165) and on Thursday, when April closed 132 points higher on a surprise $2.41 on pork product Wednesday. For the week, we put $1.73 on product against $2.08 last year.

Psychology turns negative in second half of February as traders know we have a seasonal increase in hog harvest into April and a corresponding declining pork product and cash hog market. To come into this morning with April hog futures at the widest premium to the lean hog index in several months is usually a negative omen going forward. Most years we find April hog futures at a 200- to 300-point discount to the lean hog index by the first or second week in March. A larger than normal April premium this morning is a good reason for trader apathy for buying futures.

Technically, we have a double top on daily bar charts around 9060 to 9070, and a 100-day moving average at 9059. It should be hard for April futures to close above this area this week unless they are pulled higher by cattle and/or stock indices.

We are short April hog futures in the 8900 to 9050 area and would use a protective stop should April trade above 9247 for more than one hour. We are also, short three units of April against long June hogs, waiting for April to trade more than 1000 under June to add the fourth unit.

Tomorrow, we have a monthly cold storage report with most analysts looking for January pork stocks to have increased by 58 million pounds. This would put February 1 stocks at 540 million pounds – about the same as last year. This would be considered slightly negative for the last half of the week as the 5-year average for pork storage in January is to add just 19 million pounds.

Cattle:

Cash cattle traded a surprise $5 to $6 higher Friday and served as the catalyst for February cattle futures closing 182 higher and April closing 125 higher (at $130.90.) For the week, February closed 465 higher with April up 410. Adding fuel to the fire was a significant increase in open interest which was up a large 12,149 contracts.

February, April and June cattle are now at new contract highs with August and later date contracts making new contract highs for the last four weeks.

We have talked for several weeks of always buying bad news in January and February as trader psychology is seasonally friendly going into April. Traders know the strong seasonal tendency for cash cattle to advance into late March or early April. A normal cash cattle advance from last August lows would put cash cattle in the $128 to $131 area in this March-April time period.

April futures went home Friday at the top side of this price range as they closed the week at $130.90. Technical bar chart resistance shows around 131.50 and 133.60 for the April contract.

The negative side of cattle futures is the lack of domestic business with retail beef at close to record high prices, and the near-term conjecture of gasoline headed back to $4.00 by summer.

Beef packers managed to put a large $3.80 on choice box beef last week and $4.02 on select. Again, we see up money slowing weekly volume. Last week, the USDA reported 1,003 loads traded against 1,041 the previous week,1,130 loads two weeks ago and 1,363 reported for last year.  Sometime in the not-too-distant future, traders will start to worry about weekly box volume should gas prices continue higher.

We have no position in cattle futures as the market has gone too far too fast. Most of the time a weekly rally of over 400 points will see some sort of light correction for this week, but the time of year makes this a very tough short position.

We liquidated our short June cattle futures against long June hog last Thursday with nothing to show for a trade lasting over one month. If you decided to stay with this trade use June cattle trading over June hogs by 3030 for more than one hour as your exit point. We want to return to this trade sometime in the next two to four weeks.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

 1-800-280-4566

rshort@PFGBEST.com

Tuesday, February 21, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Tuesday 9:40AM 2/21/12

Last Friday we put 55 cents on pork product and put $1.73 on product for the week. The lean-hog-index went home for the week at 8710 and this was down 55 for the week, and put April hog futures at a 327 premium against a three year average premium of 246 points. It has been several months since April hog futures have been a greater premium to the lean-hog-index than the 3 year average. Most of last week’s 352 point rally came about when shorts covered on Tuesday (April up 165) and on Thursday when April closed 132 points higher on a surprise $2.41 on pork product Wednesday. For the week we put $1.73 on product against $2.08 last year.

Psychology turns negative in second half of February as traders know we have a seasonal increase in hog harvest into April and a corresponding declining pork product and cash hog market. To come into this morning with April hog futures at the widest premium to the lean-hog-index in several months is usually a negative omen going forward. Most years we find April hog futures at a 200-300 point discount to the lean-index by the first or second week in March. A larger than normal April premium this morning is a good reason for trader apathy for buying futures.

Technically, we have a double top on daily bar charts around 9060-9070 and a 100 day moving average at 9059. It should be hard for April futures to close above this area this week unless they are pulled higher by cattle and/or stock indices.

We are short April hog futures in the 8900-9050 area and would use a protective stop should April trade above 9247 for more than one hour. We are, also, short three units of April against long June and waiting for April to trade more than 1000 under June to add the fourth unit.

Tomorrow we have a monthly cold storage report with most analysts looking for January pork stocks to have increased 58 million pounds. This would put February 1^st stocks at 540 million pounds and about the same as last year. This would be considered slightly negative for the last half of the week as the five year average for pork storage in January is to add just 19 million pounds.

 Cash cattle traded a surprise $5.00-$6.00 higher Friday and was the catalyst for February cattle futures closing 182 higher and April closing 125 higher at 130.90. For the week, February closed 465 higher with April up 410. Adding “fuel to the fire,” open interest was up a large 12,149 contracts.

February, April and June cattle are now at new contract highs with August and later date making new contract highs for the last four weeks.

We have talked for several weeks of always buying bad news in January and February as trader psychology is always friendly going into April. Traders know the strong seasonal tendency for cash cattle to advance into late March or early April. A normal cash cattle advance from last August lows would put cash cattle in the $128.00-$131.00 area in this March-April time period. April futures went home Friday at the top side of this price range as they closed the week at $130.90. Technical bar chart resistance shows around 131.50 and 133.60 for the April contract.

The negative side of cattle futures is the lack of domestic business at close to record high retail beef prices and the near term conjecture of gasoline headed back to $4.00 by summer. Beef packers managed to put a large $3.80 on choice box beef last week and $4.02 on select. Again, we see up money slowing weekly volume. Last week the U.S.D.A. reported 1,003 loads traded against 1,041 the previous week,1,130 loads two weeks ago and 1,363 reported for last year. Sometime in the not too distant future traders will start to worry about weekly box volume should gas prices continue higher.

WE have no position in cattle futures as the market has gone too far too fast. Most of the time a weekly rally of over 400 points will see some sort of light correction for this week, but the time of year makes this a very tough short position.

We liquidated our short June cattle futures against long June hog last Thursday with nothing to show for a trade lasting over one month. If you decided to stay with this trade use June cattle trading over June hogs by 3030 for more than one hour as your exit point. We want to return to this trade sometime in the next two to four weeks.

Substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Energy  Market Comments

 by Phil Flynn, PFGBEST

 1-800-935-6487

pflynn@PFGBEST.com

Tuesday, February 21, 2012 at 8:02 AM

The Energy Report for Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Oil prices surged on what can be best described as a panic attack. Oil prices surged as reports that an attack on Iran may be imminent or if you prefer, on reports that Iran cut off oil supply to Europe. Either way it caused the market to price in some scary scenarios as European and Asian buyers continued their panic crude oil buying.

Yet with another deal with Greece and a voluntary forced bond-holder haircut on Greece bonds and the market is under some pressure.

Make sure you are getting the Power to Prosper and me every day! Tune into the Fox Business Network! Get a trading plan together with a free trial to my daily trade levels! Call me - Phil Flynn - at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com to get your trial and to open your account.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com

E Mini S&P settles 1359.75 up 19.25

For the week ended (2/13-2/17)

Stock futures closed slightly higher Friday ahead of a three day weekend, but all major averages logged strong gains for the week following some positive economic data and amid optimism that Greece will find a solution to its debt crisis. For the week, the mini Dow futures contract rose 1.16 percent, the mini S&P rallied 1.38 percent, and the NASDAQ jumped 1.65 percent. The S&P and NASDAQ have logged their sixth week of gains in the last seven. All ten S&P sectors finished higher for the week, led by energy. On the economic front, consumer prices climbed in January as gasoline prices gained, according to the Labor Department, logging its biggest gain in four months. Also on the economic front, leading indicators rose in January, according to the Commerce Board, climbing to a three and a half year. Weekly jobless claims posted a better than expected drop of 13K, to a seasonally adjusted 348K, according to the Labor Department falling almost to its lowest level in four years. Housing starts gained more than expected, climbing 1.5 percent to an annual rate of 699K in January. Meanwhile the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its business activity index climbed 10.2 in February, topping expectations from a Reuters poll of 9.5. Also the homebuilder sentiment index climbed in February to its highest level in more than four years, according to the National Association of Homebuilders. Clearly the economic data has met or beat estimates in most cases throughout 2012 and has generally fueled the rally we have seen in all three benchmark indexes this year.

Going forward markets head into next week on a tentative note, even as Greece looks set to get its bailout funds. Many analysts have been saying that for much of February that the market is due for a pullback, but yet the indices continue to rise, taking the S&P 500 close to its 2011 high and the Dow and NASDAQ to multi year highs. Even if things go according to plan on the Greek debt talks at the European finance ministers meeting Monday, stock futures could still give up some big gains in the near future. The ministers are deciding on a 130 billion euro bailout plan that would stave off default for Greece. The ECB is reported to be planning to swap its Greek bonds for new bonds, in a move that many traders say will help avoid the steep losses private investors are expected to take. Stay tuned. There is little U.S. data in the coming week. In the past week, jobless claims and a few other economic reports provided a few positive surprises, giving support to the market’s gains. There are weekly jobless claims, as well as housing data in the coming week. There are also three auctions for a total $99 billion in treasury notes scheduled. Earnings season is winding down, but retailers are among the final companies to report this quarter, with Wal-mart and Home Depot reporting, among others. My technical levels for the shortened trading week in the mini S&P come in as follows. Resistance is first up at 1369.25 , and then strong resistance up at 1378.75. Support is seen down at 1342.25, and then down at 1324.75. Please call me at anytime with questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESH2 (2/21)

R2-1366.25
R1-1363.00

Pivot-1358.00

S1-1354.75

S2-1349.75

Weekly Swing #s ESH2 (2/21-2/24)

R2-1378.75

R1-1369.25

Pivot-1351.75

S1-1342.25

S2-1324.75

Daily Swing #s YMH2 (2/21)

R2-12996

R1-12962

Pivot-12911

S1-12877

S2-12826

Weekly Swing #s YMH2 (2/21-2/24)

R2-13103

R1-13016

Pivot-12858

S1-12771

S2-12613

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

INTRODUCTION TO OPTIONS TRADING

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Commodity futures, options, off-exchange foreign currency products and other forms of alternative investment involves a substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Information and materials provided in the course is for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Examples, projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness, do not reflect actual investment results, do not take in consideration commission, margin, interest and other costs, and are not guarantees of future results. The examples given in the course may not be suitable for every student.

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This course has been designed to provide a basic market introduction. By signing this agreement and enrolling in this course, student understands that he/she does so at their own risk and that there are no guarantees of future trading profits or performance.

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By signing this agreement and enrolling in this course, student agrees and acknowledges that online meetings and/or phone conversations including but not limited to classes, office hours, reviews, private and group sessions may be automatically video or electronically recorded. Student further agrees to the use of such recordings and transcripts thereof as evidence by either party in connection with any dispute that may arise involving the student and PFGBEST. Student agrees that PFGBEST may redistribute, sell or use at its discretion, recordings from any class, office hours, review or private and group sessions. Student further agrees that video recordings are exclusive property of PFGBEST and may not in any way be redistributed or used in any other way without written consent of its compliance officer.

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By signing this agreement and enrolling in this course, student acknowledges that he/she is a non-industry professional. This includes but is not limited to an employee, family member, agent, representative, associated person, principal or officer of an NFA registered FCM/FDM, Introducing Broker, CTA or CPO. Student further acknowledges that he/she is not an employee, family member, agent, representative, associated person, principal or officer of a non-registered industry firm and failure to abide by the terms of non-professional use my result in their removal from the course under the student termination policy.

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By signing this agreement and enrolling in this course, student agrees to the terms above and set forth in the course syllabus. Student agrees to indemnify and hold harmless PFGBEST, PFGBEST’s affiliates, employees, agents, successors and assigns from and against any and all liabilities, losses, damages, costs and expenses incurred by PFGBEST arising out student’s failure to fully and timely perform agreement herein.

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INTRODUCTION TO OPTIONS TRADING

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by Mike Daly, PFGBEST

1-877-294-4669

mdaly@PFGBEST.com
Friday, February 17, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Gold Closed $2.50 Lower Today and Settles at ($1725.90) For The Week ….

Today’s trading session has been indicative of the entire week. April Gold traded a very technical, choppy, and volatile $18.90 range. The range held support and resistance levels as the world’s investors and traders continue to decipher the news out of the European Union.
The news from the EU continues to change seemingly minute to minute. We hear rumors and news from the regions Finance ministers that are as clear as mud. The debt situation in Greece is virtually the main drag on the momentum of the precious metals markets.
The news in the Middle-east concerning Iran and its sabre rattling over economic sanctions imposed by the West and the rioting and demonstrations in both Egypt and Syria have fueled higher Crude Oil prices recently as traders are speculating that these Geo-political tensions have the potential to accelerate and possibly affect Oil supply or transportation .March Crude Oil futures traded as high as $103.57 per barrel on Friday. This should be “bullish “for the precious metal. However, investors are flocking to the U.S Dollar as the Euro continues to be pressured by the non action concerning their second bailout package. A WEAKER Euro is “bullish” for the U.S Dollar…………

NOTEWORTHY WEEKLY NEWS:

THURSDAY:

April gold traded as low as $1706.70 early on in the session as the European news regarding the Greek bailout continued to be negative causing investors to choose the U.S. Dollar over the precious metals as their currency of choice. A weaker Euro is ‘bullish for the Dollar and a stronger Dollar is negative for Gold. Mid to late session rumors from the E.U began to put a more positive spin on Greece’s chances to obtain their second relief package. The rumors began to turn more factual and sent investors buying Gold and Silver as the U.S Dollar dropped versus the Euro…..Causing Gold to close positive.

The U.S Labor Department reported that Initial Jobless Claims were 348,000 much better than the 365,000 that had been projected.

TUESDAY:

The world continues to watch Greece struggle in its attempt to meet the latest austerity measures in order to receive its second rescue package.Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker has invited euro zone ministers to a conference call on Wednesday, February 15th, to discuss a second Greek program, he said on Tuesday, changing a previous plan to hold a meeting with the ministers in Brussels as reported by REUTERS. The format changed as Mr Juncker was waiting to receive assurances from the Greek parliament over the implantation of a reform program, as well as other technical work needed to be addressed.
Greece has a track record of making promises and not delivering, and hopefully this time will result in a different outcome. The fragility and indecision in the region has been a huge drag on the precious metals. Traders have been less active in the precious metals as Gold bugs are taking a wait and see approach before forming their trading strategies. The trading volume has dipped dramatically in the past few sessions.

MONDAY:

By Antonis Galanopoulos and Natalie Weeks
     Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos secured approval from his Cabinet to submit laws for new budget secured approval from his Cabinet to submit laws for a new budget
secured approval from his Cabinet to submit laws for new budget measures designed to secure a second rescue package for the country, according to a government official today..      The official, who declined to be named, spoke to reporters in Athens at the end of the Cabinet meeting……
THIS NEWS SHOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE “BULLISH FOR GOLD!
However, due to the demonstrations and rioting in the streets of Athens It is my opinion that traders and global investors are taking a wait and see approach before re-entering the Gold market.
Gold traders are also eyeing the Geo-political tensions in Iran, Egypt, and Syria….

MY SWING NUMBERS FOR 1/20 (PRESIDENTS DAY) Exchanges are closed…..
GLOBEX WILL TRADE SUNDAY NIGHT……
APRIL GOLD
RESISTANCE # 2……….$1746.00
RESISTANCE # 1……….$1735.00
PIVOT…………………….$1727.00
SUPPORT # 1…………...$1717.00
SUPPORT # 2…………...$1708.00

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Soft Spot

by Robin Rosenberg, PFGBEST

(800) 611-6974

RRosenberg@PFGBEST.com

COFFEE

Forty Year Trading Range: $41.50 to $337.50 per lb.

Trades on the ICE from 2:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. CST

Greek debt woes, strength in the U.S. dollar and sliding equity prices have the Coffee market under pressure. Expectations for a huge Brazilian crop continue to weigh on the market. U.S. green Coffee stocks were up 211,753 bags to 4.507 million in January. Each day more bearish information is surfacing. When Coffee was moving higher there was new bullish developments each day.

March Arabica futures traded below $2.00 this week. Something we haven’t witnessed since November of 2010! It appears that speculators are exiting the market while producers continue to sell. A high ranking Guatemalan coffee official has stated that Coffee prices are not reacting to supply and demand fundamentals so much as they are to macroeconomic problems. Translation: the bear market in Coffee is hurting producers.

Vietnamese trading executives expect Coffee sales in Vietnam for local consumption and exports may rise in the coming weeks due to lower than expected output. What are they putting in their Coffee? Wishful thinking on their part. Futures traded below $2.00 and these people are looking for higher prices. Time for a visit to the optometrist! It really doesn’t matter if production falls; you’ve got to have buyers. My question is always, what’s bid?

Technical analysis is a methodology. The information below is not to be taken as trading advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity future or option. It may or may not agree with the fundamental analysis that appears above.

Weekly technical indications on Friday, March 17th: At this time the week’s trading range was 217.60-195.90, the last print is 2.00. The stochastic remains in sell mode. At 31.47 the RSI is lower than last week’s reading of 37.88. The M.A.C.D. histogram reads -1.21 and is lower than last week’s indication of -0.18. The market reached the bottom Bollinger band and rallied back to the weeks opening level. Coffee traded below 2.00 this week for the first time since 2010. When markets trade above or below significant price levels commercial interests know something we don’t. Go with the flow, and the flow is down! A weekly close at or above 216.40 in March coffee will turn the weekly trend up.

COCOA

Forty Year Trading Range: $4.44 to $53.79 per tonne

Trades on the ICE from 3:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. CST

The Cocoa market has been exhibiting some strength as of late. We could chalk that up to improvement in the Eurozone’s economic situation. However, the expected shortfall in Cocoa yields and short covering by non commercial traders are the real drivers behind the rally. 

Weather conditions in the Ivory Coast’s Cocoa growing areas continue to have Cocoa farmers particularly concerned. Spotty rainfall interspersed by hot dry periods has stressed the country’s Cocoa trees. Rain is needed at this time to strengthen the trees and assist in producing new foliage in advance of the flowering period. Farmers are uncertain how their April-September mid-crop harvest will fare.

Coastal regions were blessed with some heavy downpours, but the balance of the Cocoa belt remained dry. The weather is very hot and at least one good soaking is required each week to ensure proper development of the mid-crop. The extended drought and strong Harmattan winds have slowed the development of Cocoa in the world’s number one producer. Earlier this growing season there were forecasts that this seasons Cocoa crop would be larger than the record main-crop of the prior marketing season.

Some rain over the last two weeks had raised hopes for the smaller mid-crop. At this point in time the soil is dry and hard. Farmers said the weather is remains very hot and that at least one good downpour is needed every week to ensure adequate growth for the mid-crop. Production forecasts and estimates are helpful, but just let the weather throw a curve ball and it’s all over but the slow dancing and the sad singing.

Nigerian Cocoa farmers are faced with a shortage of insecticide. Actara is the only insecticide permitted for use on Nigeria’s Cocoa crop. Without it the control of insects called mirid bugs (think leafhopper) is nearly impossible. These guys can reduce Cocoa yields as much as 75 percent.

Technical analysis is a methodology. The information below is not to be taken as trading advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity future or option. It may or may not agree with the fundamental analysis that appears above. 

Weekly technical indications for Friday, March 17th: At this time the week’s trading range was 25.77-21.48 the last print is 23.76. The stochastic remains in buy mode. RSI at 46.66 is higher than last week’s reading of 38.18. The M.A.C.D. histogram at 48.80 is higher than last week’s indication of 36.11. This week’s trade took place both above and below the 9 bar moving average. The market pierced the center band of the Bollinger study, but has broken back and is finishing out the week below it. A weekly close at or above 23.04 in March cocoa will turn the weekly trend up. 

COTTON 

Forty Year Trading Range: $26.84 to $227.00 per lb.

Trades on the ICE from 8:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. CST (Next Day)

The National Cotton Council has released results of it’s 29^th annual early season plantings intention survey. U.S. Cotton producers intend to plant 13.63 million acres this spring. That’s down 7.5 % percent from 2011. Although planting intentions are lower the USDA has stated that production will be higher than last season “if” yield returns to normal. U.S. retail sales numbers indicate consumers are not chomping at the bit to purchase goods not required for everyday living. Large crops are expected from Southern Hemisphere Cotton producers. These factors could cause Cotton prices to stagnate for some time.

The University of Arkansas System - Division of Agriculture has released a new variety of Cotton that goes by the name of UA222. This is the second new variety they have released over the last three years. Agronomists are working to improve the fiber quality of Cotton grown in Arkansas and the mid-south. The only variety of Cotton to produce better results is UA48, a strain previously developed by the division. The design and use of innovative testing and selection methods have enhanced the ability to screen germplasm (seeds) for the combination of genetic traits most desired by the Cotton industry. These include exceptional quality, high yield, resistance to disease and early maturity. We will see how UA222 performs this coming growing season. Sounds like a winner to me. Now all we need is the cooperation of Mother Nature.

Not long ago I wrote that overseas Cotton buyers were defaulting on their contracts at an alarming rate. Granted, the wild swing in the market created hardships for many involved in the Cotton industry. However, unless they file for bankruptcy they are responsible for their contractual obligations. The American Cotton Shippers Association indicates that there are millions of dollars tied up in Cotton contracts that have not been fulfilled.

The world’s largest Cotton merchants are seeking the assistance of the U.S. government. Plans are to meet with representatives of the USDA and the Office of the United States Trade Representative to ask that there be “government to government” meetings with countries whose textile mills have defaulted on their contracts. We’re talking hundreds of millions of dollars owed on a quantity of three to five million bales of Cotton. That’s near 30 percent of last year’s U.S. production. There must be a better way to do business.

Technical analysis is a methodology. The information below is not to be taken as trading advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity future or option. It may or may not agree with the fundamental analysis that appears above.

Weekly technical indications for Friday, March 17th: At this time the week’s trading range was 94.37-9062, the last print is 92.63. The stochastic has issued a sell signal. RSI at 44.79 is higher than last week’s reading of 41.98. The M.A.C.D. histogram at 0.85 is lower than last week’s indication of 1.04. The market was able to reach the center Bollinger band, but unable to hold and traded back down to the area between the center and bottom Bollinger band. A weekly close at or above 91.57 in March Cotton will turn the weekly trend up.                                                      

SUGAR

Forty Year Trading Range:  2.30 cents to 66.00 cents per lb.

         Trades on the ICE from 2:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. CST

Brazilian Sugar growers are in a fix. The Sugar cane in many of their fields is far beyond maturity and has become unproductive. The cane should be replaced every five to six harvests. According to one of my sources the average Sugar plantation has gone through 3.7 harvests.

Though we witnessed a fall in global Sugar prices over the last year, some growers feel that prices are high enough to hold off replanting at this time. So what will they do if Sugar prices ratchet to the upside and they have a light harvest? Cry and stomp their feet are my best guess. If they do not prepare their fields for the future they can only blame themselves.

Rainy season continues in Brazil. This is when the majority of plant growth occurs. That being the case it’s too early to get a handle on the size of the 2012 crop. Rainfall in southern Parana state and Southwestern Matto Grosso Do Sul was not up to par and output shortfalls will likely take place in those growing areas. Thoughts are that this season’s production will eclipse last season’s. Isn’t that always the case?

According to the acting secretary of the Indonesian Sugar Association a 13 percent increase in Sugar production to 2.4 million tonnes is expected this season. In order to meet domestic demand the country will import an additional 240,000 tonnes of raw Sugar. Once processed, this will equal 220,000 tonnes of refined white Sugar. Indonesia is the largest consumer of Sugar in Southeast Asia. At one time there were many more operating Sugar mills in Indonesia. Between 1995 and 2000 the country’s sugar production declined some 30 percent as out of date milling operations were shut down.

Technical analysis is a methodology. The information below is not to be taken as trading advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity future or option. It may or may not agree with the fundamental analysis that appears above.

Weekly technical indications for Friday, March 17th: Breaks to support should be viewed as buying opportunities. At this time the week’s trading range is 24.84-24.07, the last print is 24.62. The stochastic remains in buy mode. RSI at 50.07 is lower than last week’s reading of 50.23. The M.A.C.D. histogram at 0.19 is higher than last week’s reading of 0.15. The market is again finishing out the week above the 9 bar average and the center Bollinger band. A weekly close at or above 25.47 in March Sugar will turn the weekly trend up. I see upside potential in this market.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Energy  Market Comments

by Phil Flynn, PFGBEST

1-800-935-6487

pflynn@PFGBEST.com

Friday, February 17, 2012 at 8:08 AM

The Energy Report for Friday, February 17th 2012

By Phil Flynn 800-935-6487

Greece solved the problem and they see the light! We gotta get long now and think, they got it right.
There ain't no danger stocks can go too far if we start believing now that Greece can change who they are. Greece is the word!

They think austerity won't cause some growing pains, Why don't they understand, It's just a crying shame, The cuts are lying only real is real, We start to find right now if Greece can live with the deal, Greece is the word.
Greece is the word, is the word that you heard, does this latest plan have meaning? Greece  is the time, the bond plan in motion Greece is the way we are feeling . 
We print the money and we throw away conventionality belongs to yesterday, there is a chance that that EU needs a debt watching Czar unless we start believing now that Greece can change who they are. Greece  is the word.
Greece is the word, is the word that you heard. Does the word default have meaning?  This is a trade  of illusion wrapped up in trouble laced with confusion, What we doing here?

We take the pressure and we throw away, common sense belongs to yesterday, there is a chance that futures can make it so far if we start believing now that Greece can change who they are. Greece is the word.
Against the bag drop of a red hot oil market and geopolitical risk map, oil also got a boost on the hope that there will be a final deal to solve the Greek debt crisis. This of course is about the 100th time that we have heard this song and dance but it appears traders are moving and grooving to this Greece music. The latest plan has the European Central Bank swapping its Greek bonds for new ones to ensure it isn’t forced to take losses in a debt restructuring. Bloomberg News reports that, "The move may be completed by Monday, and  could pave the way for a private-sector bond swap that aims to slice about 100 billion Euros off Greece’s debt as the embattled nation struggles to stave off default."

Word of this possible deal sent stocks soaring and helped pump up oil that was already elevated due to a host of geopolitical reasons. Iran of course is the main reason along with a strike in Yemen and the violence in Syria spreading outside of its borders, not to mention a pipeline explosion. The Sudan and Nigeria are also seeing rising tensions as well. Yemen exports all of its oil to Europe and already those courtiers are looking for alternative supply before an expected Iranian oil embargo goes into effect.

Add to that a Reuters report about a Houston shipping channel that is fogged in with outbound-only vessel traffic and forty-three vessels delayed as fog persists for two days. They say that while fog eased at the upper end of the 53-mile (85-km) channel, Texas City and Galveston pilots still delayed movements due to fog at the lower end.  

 Natural gas gave us a surprise drawdown but it was probably the impact of an unusually high amount of nuclear power maintenance due to warm weather. The EIA reported that working gas in storage was 2,761 bcf, a decline of 127 bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 817 bcf higher than last year at this time and 765 bcf above the 5-year average of 1,996 bcf. This came as nuclear power is running at only 88% of capacity as many plants are taking advantage of the warm temperatures to do maintenance.

Make sure that you are getting the "Power to Prosper" and me every day! Tune into the Fox Business Network! Also make sure that you open your account and get a free trial to my daily trade levels and entry and exit numbers! Call me - Phil Flynn - today at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.cm.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Thursday, Feb. 16:

Thursday's weekly export sales report was mixed. Soybean sales last week were 436 thousand metric tons, off 28% from the week prior with China getting 206 of the total versus 338 the week before.

China stepped  back a little last week as they prepared for their trade visit to Washington this week and a more aggressive buying pattern. Through Thursday, they had purchased 120 thousand metric tons, as well as reaching a long-term agreement for soybean purchases.

The longer-term agreement can be expanded or contracted depending on circumstances like price spikes and weather, so it's not like actual sales – more like a line of credit at $4 billion.  We it to turn into sales/exports.

Corn exports reported Thursday were 1.005 million metric tons, up from last week's 694 thousand metric tons, and above the 4-week average of 830. Though China was absent, Egypt took 240, and Mexico for 415 were the big players. Mexico's drought has had them buying U.S. corn for 11 consecutive weeks. The drought continues, so we expect the demand to continue as well.

Domestic demand for corn remains robust as well. The sharp summer high price spikes for the past two years have ethanol producers blending and using the pre-summer low prices to build inventory storage.  Therefore, when corn prices surge in summer, along with crude oil and gasoline prices (due to seasonal high consumption), they can sell the previously stored ethanol at a profit. Expect them to continue to buy corn for ethanol production heavily through March.

The USDA came out this week with its 10-year baseline projections for grain production. As usual, the market ignored it. The reason: it only gives planted acreage projections. Because world populations are always growing, they come in with higher acreage estimates to compensate. Population growth throughout the last five years has left  acreage increases  insufficient to meet  demand. The other problem with the report is that it is void of demand indicators. As you know from being a regular reader of my reports, large trading funds controlling price trends focus on demand-side fundamentals over supply-side. Repeat after me: demand…not supply…controls the trend.

Markets are closed Monday for Presidents' Day in the U.S. Traders will be reluctant to add positions or risk, especially with the weather conditions expected in parts of South America. WXRISK.com sees a good soaking of 3 to 5 inches today through Sunday in central and eastern Argentina – the big producing areas of Buenos Aires and La Pampa with 70% coverage and another 1 to 2 inches Monday to Thursday.

Southern Brazil could get .50 to 1.50 inches Monday and Tuesday. If the rain totals are accurate, we should return Tuesday to start the week with lower prices. After last Thursday's February 9 USDA crop report remember we anticipated post-report profit taking by funds for a late February low to buy long and hold into the March 31 planting intentions report. Even longer than that, actually, as the late February low should hold through the summer growing season.

Corn prices advanced 30 cents off the crop report high. Beans gained 35 cents since just before that crop report, greatly influenced by talk of a heat dome entering South America while the beans are still in the growth phase.  Wheat was pulled down 50 cents.

All signals in grains remain bullish in the big picture, but profit taking always causes a break after a key crop report.

Once we enter March, all talk turns to the March 31 planting estimates report; weather in South America will take a backseat but we’ll be watching ending production and crop losses.

Technicals:
May corn support is $6.20 then $6.16. Any break to this level should be bought. Resistance is $6.48 then $6.56. May bean support is $12.35. Resistance is up at $12.70 then $12.90. May normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report.wheat support is $6.25 then $6.15. Resistance is $6.50.

If the rains do not happen in South America after all, then prices will not dip to test supports.
 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the

Daily S and P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com

Thursday, February 16, 2012 at 3:01 PM

E Mini S&P settles 1354.75 up 12.50

S&P and Dow futures markets recovered from overnight pressure and moved into positive territory by mid morning, to rally into the close. All three benchmark indexes posted their highest close for 2012. Ongoing concerns from the Greek debt crisis along with residual weakness from Chinese trade numbers put global equity markets on the defensive early on in the trading day. However a strong set of economic numbers this morning helped turn prices to the upside. The biggest piece of bullish news was the Euro rallying against the Dollar after a report that European central banks will exchange their existing Greek bond holdings for new ones in an effort to help the situation in the debt-ridden nation. The swap would take place over the weekend, according to sources close to the story. The ECB and Bundesbank would not comment on the report.

In U.S. economic news, weekly jobless claims posted a better than expected drop of 13K, to a seasonally adjusted 348K, according to the Labor Department falling to its lowest level in almost four years. Housing starts gained more than expected, climbing to 1.5 percent to an annual rate of 699K in January, according to the Commerce Department. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Federal reserve said its business activity index climbed 10.2 in February, topping expectations from a Reuters poll for 9.5. The Producer Price Index posted its largest gain in six months, rising 0.4 percent in January, after increasing 0.3 percent in December. Other than a few economic numbers tomorrow, highlighted by CPI and a leading indicator gauge, Friday is light on scheduled releases. Due to being headline driven, especially from the EU, traders should watch for continued headlines on the Greek debt crisis as that situation seems to change on a daily basis.

Daily Swing #s ESH2

R2-1371.75

R1-1363.25

Pivot-1348.75

S1-1340.25

S2-1325.75

Daily Swing #s YMH2

R2-13014

R1-12942

Pivot-12821

S1-12749

S2-12628

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

by Mike Daly, PFGBEST

1-877-294-4669

mdaly@PFGBEST.com
Thursday, February 16, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Gold Settles 30 Cents Higher … ($1728.40)

Today’s April Gold Futures session covered a very choppy $24.90 range.
April gold traded as low as $1706.70 early on in the session as the European news regarding the Greek bailout continued to be negative causing investors to choose the U.S. Dollar over the precious metals as their currency of choice. A weaker Euro is ‘bullish for the Dollar and a stronger Dollar is negative for Gold. Mid to late session rumors from the E.U began to put a more positive spin on Greece’s chances to obtain their second relief package. The rumors began to turn more factual and sent investors buying Gold and Silver as the U.S Dollar dropped versus the Euro…..Causing Gold to close positive.

The U.S Labor Department reported that Initial Jobless Claims were 348,000 much better than the 365,000 that had been projected.

MY SWING NUMBERS 2/17
APRIL GOLD
RESISTANCE # 2………$1747.00
RESISTANCE # 1………$1737.00
PIVOT…………………...$1722.00
SUPPORT # 1………… .$1712.00
SUPPORT # 2…………. $1697.00
VOLUME…………………157,000

MARCH SILVER
RESISTANCE # 2………$33.90
RESISTANCE # 1………$33.74
PIVOT……………………$33.19
SUPPORT # 1…………..$32.82
SUPPORT # 2…………..$32.49
VOLUME………………..48,000

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

by Bob Short, PFGBEST

1-800-280-4566

rshort@PFGBEST.com 

Feb. 16, 2012 at 9:30 a.m. Central:

Hogs:

A surprise $2.41 on pork product last night has April hog futures up over 100 points this morning. Most of the up money came on a 5-cent-per-pound higher ham market. April hog futures went home Wednesday with a 171-point premium to the lean hog index against a 3-year average of a positive 299.

Cash hogs were 50 cents lower yesterday helping to take the lean index down 17; now, that index is down just 46 poitns for the first three days of this week. The index should be down another 60 points by this coming Monday. This will give close to a 400-point premium – a bit high for this time of year.

The strongest hog futures seasonal fundamental for the first half of the year is selling April futures the second or third week of February.  Traders always anticipate that the late February seasonal increase in hog harvest levels will break pork product and cash hogs. This year’s less than normal basis premium makes this trade a little tougher; but, as the April premium increases into next week, the trade becomes easier to do.

We are selling April futures in the 8950 to 9050 area and would use a protective stop above 9230.

Cattle are trying to make new contract highs the last several days but it is becoming a problem. If cattle futures do continue higher into next week it could add additional upside pressure to hogs. Be that as it may, this is such a strong seasonal trade we must try the short side in this 8900 to 9100 area.

We are short three units of April hog futures against long June and waiting for April to close 1000 under June to add another unit. The psychological support are of 1000 has held this spread for the last 15 days, but the resulting technical consolidation triangle should be breaking down sometime next week.

We are long two units of June hogs against short June cattle with a tiny 10- to 20-point profit. Not much to show for a trade over one month old.

Cattle:

We have talked for the past several weeks of cattle traders’ tendency to always buy bad news in January and February. This year we have the prospects of producing 4.6% less beef than 2011. This has been the primary focus for bullish psychology by funds and floor traders.

For three weeks now, we have been making new contract highs in August and further back cattle futures, and over the last few days the market is trying for new contract highs in February, April and June contracts.

Cash cattle pricing is now between $123 and $124; the normal seasonal 12% to 15% advance from last August lows should see cash in the $128 to $131 area by late March or early April.

As is the case in most one-way markets, we will probably overshoot this area by several hundred points as shorts will be thrown out.  When a market gets into this mode we continue higher until we stop. There is no way to call the top unless front futures don’t hold new contract highs the next several days.

We have been short two units of June cattle against long June hogs for over a month with little profit or loss in this spread trade. The trade was initiated for the bad beef product in January and February. The problem came when cash cattle did not break with the sharp selloff in boxed beef. This has kept the trade from going up or down. The strongest two seasonal trades of the year are weakness in June cattle and strength in June hogs. Since I don’t know how high cattle futures may go in the next 30 days this trade has become a problem. I really don’t know if we should exit with no profit or loss or try and hang with this trade knowing that June cattle should be 2000 to 2200 over June hogs in late April. I’m going to let you decide on this thing.

Like always, we should use the protective stop of June cattle trading 3030 over June hogs for more than one hour. If you are as tired as I am in watching this trade unfold you may want to exit today with about a breakeven.

There could be more upside in cattle futures into March that would keep this spread from doing much, but somewhere over the next 30 days this spread should start to work.

 There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Energy  Market Comments

by Phil Flynn, PFGBEST

1-800-935-6487

pflynn@PFGBEST.com

Thursday, February 16, 2012 at 8:04 AM

The Energy Report for Thursday, February 16th 2012

By Phil Flynn 800-935-6487

Iran may be ramping up the pressure on the global markets but US refiners seem to be rising to the occasion. According to data compiled from the Energy Information Administration, Dow Jones News points out that US refiners boosted crude-oil processing by 2.2% last week to  a impressive 14.7  million barrels per day barrels day which was the highest level for the week since 2007.

This surge came as the demand for US diesel exports is going through the roof. Record cold temperatures in Europe helped send US diesel exports to a record high. Reuters News reported that according to IEA data, estimated distillate exports hit a whopping 1.124 mln bpd, up from 996,000 bpd in the previous record report. This of course led to a surprise drawdown in crude supply of about 171,00 barrels.

Yet it seems there are some small signs that Iran may try to restart talks and step back from the brink of war. Reports of supply cuts to Europe were denied yet in some ways the Iranians are acknowledging what already exist. We have seen many buyers of Iranian oil already stop buying, making it harder to sell their oil anyway. Still the Iranian premium in oil is still rising as the risk premium is probably close to $20 a barrel. In the meantime, we'll add to the mix a pipeline explosion in Syria and contuing pressure in Nigeria! Buckle Up!

The "Power to Prosper" can be yours if you tune into the Fox Business Network where you can see me every day! Is your trading in need of a makeover? It is time to call me and get a free trial to my daily trade levels and open your account! Just call me - Phil Flynn - at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com.   

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